Preview by Numbers: Arsenal v. Hull City, FA Cup Final

Wembley Stadium, London
Saturday, May 17
12:00 p.m. EDT, 17:00 BST
  • Match Officials
    • Referee: Lee Probert
    • Assistants: Jake Collin and Mick McDonough
    • 4th Official: Kevin Friend
  • All-Time in All Competitions: 12 Arsenal wins, 3 Hull City wins, 3 draws
  • All-Time in the FA Cup: 2 Arsenal wins, 1 Hull City win, 2 draws
  • Arsenal's Path Here
    • Third Round: Beat Tottenham Hotspur, 2-0
    • Fourth Round: Beat Coventry City, 4-0
    • Fifth Round: Beat Liverpool, 2-1
    • Sixth Round: Beat Everton, 4-1
    • Semi-Final: Beat Wigan Athletic, 1-1 (4-2 on penalties)
  • Hull City's Path Here
    • Third Round: Beat Middlesbrough, 2-0
    • Fourth Round: Beat Southend United, 2-0
    • Fifth Round: Drew Brighton & Hove Albion, 1-1; won replay 2-1
    • Sixth Round: Beat Sunderland, 3-0
    • Semi-Final: Beat Sheffield United, 5-3
  • Arsenal's League Form: L-W-W-W-W-W
  • Hull City's League Form: W-L-D-L-L-L
  • Weather: Chance of Rain, 21 C / 70 F
It has been a weird season. Opening day frustration morphed quickly and one month later Arsenal were top of the league. They basically remained there for almost five months. Then, everything crumbled rather spectacularly and the league season ended in a familiar place, that is, above Tottenham.

For all the heartache and the anxiety and the arguments and the rabble-rousing that the last nine months have brought, it all comes down to this. One match at Wembley against Hull City to potentially end the cursed trophy drought once and for all.

Regardless of how you feel about specific players, the manager, the transfer window, etc., now is the time to rally around this team one more time.

This is it. Come on, you Gunners.

Arsenal Squad News

Out: Gnabry (knee,) Walcott (knee,) Ryo (ankle)
Doubts: Vermaelen (knee,) Oxlade-Chamberlain (groin)
  • I can say, with near certainty, that a Polish goalkeeper will start. Whether it's Lukasz Fabianski or Wojciech Szczesny, well, my guess is as good as yours.
  • Thomas Vermaelen is a serious doubt with a knee injury, which means the Arsenal back four basically picks itself.
  • Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain made a moderately surprising return to full training this week, though I don't expect him to start.
  • With no other new injures, there's no need to make any changes elsewhere, right? Since Mesut Ozil and Aaron Ramsey returned, Arsenal have had a comfortable level of consistency up front; I can't see Arsene Wenger messing with that.
Predicted XI: Fabianski, Sagna, Koscielny, Mertesacker, Gibbs, Arteta, Ramsey, Ozil, Cazorla, Podolski, Giroud.

Hull City Squad News

Out: Jelavic (cup tied,) Long (cup tied,) Dudgeon (knee)
Doubts: Brady (groin,) Chester (hamstring)
  • Obviously, the big squad news story for Hull City is the fact that Nikica Jelavic and Shane Long are cup tied, as they appeared in the third round of the FA Cup for their former clubs, Everton and West Bromwich Albion, respectively.
  • As a result, Hull will not likely start in a 4-4-2 formation. Intending to be difficult to break down, Hull should line up in a 4-5-1 with Yannick Sagbo as the lone striker.
  • In other big news, goalkeeper Allan McGregor has re-entered himself into the conversation, having recovered from a horrifying kidney injury. Whether he or Steve Harper starts between the sticks is as unanswerable for me as Arsenal's question in the same position.
  • Defender Paul McShane has made a moderately miraculous return from ankle ligament damage as well, but I would not expect him to start.
  • Robbie Brady is a long shot as he is recovering from groin surgery, though he also made an unexpected return to full training. That makes three Hull players who have made stunning returns to near-availability after I claimed they were all out for the season in my preview for the April 20 match.
  • Joe Dudgeon is out for sure, though; he's been out almost all year after knee surgery, only making two League Cup appearances this season.
  • Center back James Chester, who has just committed his international career to Wales, is a doubt with a hamstring injury he picked up on May 3 in the first half against Aston Villa. He missed last week but could very well start Saturday.
Predicted XI: Harper, Rosenior, Chester, Davies, Figueroa, Huddlestone, Livermore, Meyler, Boyd, Elmohamady, Sagbo.

Arsenal's Season in Brief Review
  • Things could not have started worse for Arsenal, as a 3-1 opening day loss to Aston Villa under moderately astonishing circumstances left the Gunners in seemingly dire straits. Aaron Ramsey helped pull Arsenal through their Champions League qualifier against Fenerbahce and a 1-0 win over Tottenham just before the international break did just enough to ease the fans' pitchforks away, before...
  • Arsenal went unbeaten in their next 12 after that opening day loss before a 2-1 loss to Borussia Dortmund on Champions League group Matchday 3. Arsenal first went top of the league on September 14, Ozil's first match with the Gunners.
  • Sitting atop the Premier League and their Champions League group, the League Cup felt like an afterthought, as the Gunners crashed out to Chelsea 2-0 in the fourth round.
  • Wins over Liverpool and Dortmund in Germany raised the bar yet again, and despite a 1-0 loss at Old Trafford thrown into the mix, Arsenal were four points clear at the summit in early December.
  • The first of a handful of stretches of terrible fixtures tripped up Arsenal just before the holiday period, but a light January fixture list meant Arsenal remained top through the first month of 2014.
  • A 2-2 draw at Southampton, however, marked the beginning of the end of their title aspirations; a week and a half later, Arsenal fell from top spot after a 5-1 drubbing at Anfield.
  • Arsenal crumbled into familiar fourth position after yet another rough run of fixtures in February and March and crashed out of Europe to Bayern Munich once again.
  • That run was tempered by Arsenal's progression in the FA Cup, with critical home wins over the likes of Tottenham, Liverpool, and Everton.
  • A 3-0 league loss to Everton on April 6 left fourth place out of Arsenal's control, but the Toffees would go on to lose to Crystal Palace, Southampton, and Manchester City to hand Arsenal another fourth place finish, as the Gunners finished the league season with five wins on the bounce.
Hull City's Season in Brief Review
  • Hull finished second in the Championship last year to return to the Premier League after a three-year absence.
  • Through their first seven league matches, Hull had only lost in road fixtures to Chelsea and Manchester City, climbing as high as seventh in the table in late September. They advanced to the fourth round of the League Cup, but crashed out to Spurs on penalties.
  • Hull stumbled a bit through November, losing four out of five, before shocking Liverpool 3-1 at the KC stadium; Hull sat 10th on December 1.
  • The Tigers won only once in their next 11 fixtures, but thanks to four draws in the mix, never fell beyond 13th place.
  • While they could not beat any top half teams, wins over Sunderland, Cardiff, West Brom, and Swansea through February, March, and April were enough to keep the Tigers afloat in 13th in mid-April.
  • Meanwhile, a moderately easy FA Cup run against just one Premier League opponent saw Hull head to Wembley against Sheffield United, booking their place in their first ever final with a 5-3 win.
  • A come from behind draw at Craven Cottage left Hull with 37 points, which was enough to survive the drop.
  • Hull did, however, lose four of their last five matches. They have not won since defeating Sheffield United in the Semi-Final.
Match Facts
  • Arsenal have won six consecutive matches against Hull, across all competitions, after losing the first meeting in the league after Hull's promotion in 2008. Hull won that opening encounter 2-1, scoring their goals four minutes apart just after the hour mark to stun Arsenal at the Emirates.
  • Arsenal won the reverse fixture 3-1 in Hull, then won in the sixth round of the FA Cup 2-1 at the Emirates, as detailed in the "Previous FA Cup Ties" section below.
  • In 2009/10, Arsenal won both league meetings, winning 3-0 at the Emirates before needing an injury time winner from Nicklas Bendtner to win 2-1 at the KC Stadium. Hull sacked manager Phil Brown the next day and were relegated at season's end.
  • Arsenal won both league meetings this season, winning 2-0 at the Emirates in December and 3-0 at the KC Stadium four weeks ago.
  • Arsenal have outscored Hull 15-3 during their six match winning streak; the Gunners have scored at least twice in each match.
Previous FA Cup Ties
  • This will be the fourth meeting between Arsenal and Hull City in the FA Cup; Arsenal have won two of the three prior meetings.
  • 2009, Sixth Round: Arsenal won 2-1 at the Emirates. Despite losing to Hull on home soil earlier in the campaign, Arsenal came from behind to defeat the Tigers on this occasion. Nick Barmby opened the scoring in the 13th minute, but Arsenal won through late second half goals from Robin van Persie and William Gallas. Speaking of former captains who have since left the club, this match might be most famous for the pre-match incident where Cesc Fabregas was accused of spitting at Hull assistant Brian Horton.
  • 1930, Semi-Final: Oh my, we've gone back a ways here, haven't we? Arsenal and Hull City played a 2-2 draw at Elland Road in Leeds in their semi-final, requiring a replay at Villa Park four days later, which Arsenal won 1-0. The Gunners then beat Huddersfield Town in the Final for the club's first piece of silverware.
  • 1908, First Round: Hull City earned a 0-0 draw in Southeast London at Woolwich Arsenal on January 11, 1908 before winning the replay at home, 4-1, five days later.
The Referee
  • The referee is Wiltshire-based Lee Probert.
  • Arsenal entered this season without a win in their previous five matches with Probert in the middle; this season, however, over four matches with Probert as referee, the Gunners won three and drew one.
  • With Probert, Arsenal defeated Norwich 4-1 in October, Newcastle 1-0 in December, and Fulham 2-0 in January. They then drew Swansea 2-2 in March after Mathieu Flamini's late own goal.
  • All-time across all competitions with Probert, Arsenal have a record of five wins, three losses, and four draws.
  • Probert has taken charge of just one Hull City match this season; incidentally, it was the one FA Cup match they did not win up to this point this year, the fifth round 1-1 draw with Brighton & Hove Albion that forced a replay.
  • All-time across all competitions with Probert, Hull City have a record of three wins, seven losses, and three draws. Their only top flight victory with Probert in the middle was a 3-0 win over West Brom in October of 2008.