Preview by Numbers: Arsenal v. Tottenham Hotspur

Emirates Stadium, London

Sunday, February 26

8:30 a.m. EST, 1:30 p.m. GMT

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• Match Officials
• Referee: Mike Dean
• Assistants: Steve Child and Simon Long
• 4th Official: Phil Dowd
• Reverse Fixture: Tottenham 2 - 1 Arsenal
• This Match, Last Year: Arsenal 2 - 3 Tottenham
• All-Time in All Competitions: 69 Arsenal wins, 53 Tottenham wins, 45 draws
• Arsenal's League Form: L-L-L-D-W-W
• Tottenham's League Form: W-D-L-W-D-W

We're getting way too used to images like this one.
Photo: Daily Mail.

So. Big game, this.

When was the last time a North London derby had this much riding on it for Arsenal? The Gunners have had an extremely trying week, digging themselves a massive hole against Milan in Europe, then crashing meekly out of the FA Cup in Sunderland. Now, fourth place is essentially all Arsenal has to play for this season. But, if you want to put a positive spin on things, Arsenal do sit in fourth place right now, so it's not like they have to gain ground on anybody. They just have to do as well as Chelsea, Newcastle, and Liverpool from here on out.

But, given Arsenal's performances of late, do you really trust them to match results with some of these other sides (though, have you seen Chelsea lately?) That's why getting back on the right track in the league right away is so important.

That's why this is going to be a season defining game for Arsenal.

There are really only two ways this kind of game can go. An Arsenal win can be a springboard moving forward. An Arsenal loss can seriously damage this team's aspirations. A draw can go in either of these directions, depending on how it's played out. There's really no other way around it. It won't be possible to feel any sort of middle-ground mediocre after this game. It'll either be a really high high or a really low low. So, let's hope for the former and reclaim North London for the red and white.

Arsenal Squad News

Out: Squillaci (groin), Ramsey (ankle), Coquelin (hamstring), Mertesacker (ankle), Frimpong (knee), Santos (ankle), Diaby (hamstring), Jenkinson (back), Wilshere (ankle)
Doubts: Gibbs (knock), Chamakh (toe), Koscielny (knee)

Really, Kieran Gibbs might not be fit again? Really?
Photo: Telegraph.

Oh look, nine players are out with injuries. Three more face fitness tests. How about that...

Arsenal have lost seven of those 12 names in the past two weeks. Laurent Koscielny picked up his knee injury at Milan, but is in contention to start on Sunday. Rumors are he'll pass fit, but it's too early to be certain. Kieran Gibbs was going to play for the reserves this week, but he picked up a knock in training and now he too faces a fitness test. Marouane Chamakh did play in that reserves match, but came in carrying a toe injury and left on the half hour mark.

That reserves match was a 5-0 win over Norwich with a very strong line-up that included Chamakh, Ju Young Park, Andrei Arshavin, and Yossi Benayoun, not to mention 45 minutes for Carl Jenkinson, who is on his way back from his... er... back... injury.

Last week, all three Arsenal substitutions came because of injuries. Francis Coquelin was first, looking like he pulled his hamstring as he had against Leeds in January. I haven't heard anything, but it's probably three weeks again. Sebastien Squillaci came on, messed things up for a while, then left with his own groin injury that should keep him far away from the pitch for this one. Meanwhile, Aaron Ramsey picked up a knock to his ankle in the Sunderland match as well, and while I haven't heard anything yet, my feeling is that he's going to be missing this one, too.

Meanwhile, it looks like Per Mertesacker's season with Arsenal is done, since he's right now just proclaiming that he'll be fit to play for Germany in Euro 2012. None of the long-term injuries look ready to return just yet.

The number of big names playing for the reserves this week has brought up the question of squad rotation. We did not see the likes of Andrei Arshavin and Yossi Benayoun in the listless display in the FA Cup last week.

Arsenal's best case scenario for the line-up would involve both Koscielny and Gibbs passing fit, otherwise the back four will be a mess (it would be Vermaelen on the left with Song and Djourou in the middle.) No Ramsey could mean a start for Tomas Rosicky or maybe Benayoun or Arshavin. Which two wingers will start among Gervinho, the Ox, and Theo? Questions, questions, questions... so many questions, I feel it would be pointless to venture a guess at the starting squad right now.

Tottenham Squad News

Out: Bentley (knee), Gallas (calf), Jenas (Achilles), Huddlestone (ankle)
Doubts: Adebayor (knee), Assou-Ekotto (groin), Modric (illness), Sandro (calf), van der Vaart (calf), King (calf)

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!
Photo: Daily Mail.

Despite being listed as doubts, what do you think are the odds that players like Emmanuel Adeabyor (knee injury) and Rafael van der Vaart (calf injury) actually miss a match like this? Tottenham's doubt list looks larger than normal because they're coming off an FA Cup match where a lot of the bigger names were rested with knocks (that worked out well for them, no?)

Among the other doubts, Benoit Assou-Ekotto had minor groin surgery and Spurs will sweat over his late fitness test. Luka Modric missed last week with the "flu," so he's probably more likely than not. Captain Ledley King is always 50/50 with some sort of injury. Brazilian midfielder Sandro has struggled with a calf injury all year.

Tottenham have four long term injuries, which includes ex-Arsenal ex-Chelsea defender William Gallas, out with a calf injury. Tom Huddlestone is out as well. Jermaine Jenas was on loan, but sent back to Spurs from Aston Villa after rupturing his Achilles.

Continuing punchline David Bentley is out with a knee injury which he suffered on loan at West Ham. Spurs were considering loaning him to the MLS.

Current Form

Spurs failed to win at...the circus? last week.
Photo: Daily Mail.

I have found it very difficult to talk about form in recent weeks, mostly because the trends have been so bizarre. Arsenal had a stirring comeback in the FA Cup against Aston Villa, only to go out a few days later and lay an egg against Bolton. Then, they scored seven goals against a beleaguered Blackburn side, beat Sunderland at the death a week later, and then promptly forgot how to play the sport again over the next two matches. Make up your mind! What team are you gonna be this week? All that craziness aside, Arsenal have won their last two in the league, and will look to win three straight for the first time since their five match winning streak in October-November.

Arsenal have not played at home since that 7-1 thrashing of ten man Blackburn. They have won 15 of 21 home matches this season, losing three (Liverpool, United, and City in the Carling Cup) and drawing three (Marseille, Fulham, and Wolves.)

Aside from beating Watford (barely) in the FA Cup, Spurs have not won away from home since December 27 against Norwich. Let's break this down, match by match, going back to December. Spurs lost at Stoke 2-1 on December 11 (you can blame that damn cyclist referee!,) then beat Shamrock Rovers in the Europa League on the 15th. Their next away game was a win at Norwich on the 27th. On New Year's Eve, they drew at Swansea. Then, their next away game was on January 22, when a late penalty sent them to a loss at Manchester City. This was followed by the close win at Watford, a 0-0 draw at Anfield, and a 0-0 draw at Stevenage.

Overall in the league, Spurs have six wins on their travels, but have dropped points on six occasions as well, drawing three and losing three. They have not won on the road against any team in the top seven.

Match Facts

Great moments in North London derby history.
Oh, Rocky Rocky... Photo: Arsenal Collective.

Tottenham Hotspur have not done the league double over Arsenal since 1993. Even in spite of that, Arsenal knocked Spurs out of the FA Cup in the semifinal that season. That being said, Spurs have had the better mix of results in the derby over the last few seasons. Tottenham won the reverse fixture this season, 2-1 at White Hart Lane. Rafael van der Vaart opened the scoring despite a handball in the build-up, Aaron Ramsey equalized in the second half despite having a poor match on the whole, but Spurs won it late on a long range goal from Kyle Walker that Wojciech Szczesny really should have stopped.

Last year, Spurs took four out of six points from Arsenal in the league, coming from two goals down on both occasions to win at the Emirates in November and draw at the Lane in April. Arsenal had previously knocked Spurs out of the Carling Cup in extra time at White Hart Lane that September.

Arsenal's last league win over Tottenham came on Halloween 2009. Robin van Persie and Cesc Fabregas scored a minute apart late in the first half, as Arsenal went on to win 3-0. Spurs won the reverse of that fixture in April 2010, 2-1. You may recall Danny Rose's wonder-goal in that match, during which I just found myself yelling at Manuel Almunia for not catching the cross in the first place, his punch out setting up Rose's strike.

The Referee

Here's a screengrab of John Terry trying to grab the red
card out of Mike Dean's hand. This picture is just full of
fail. Photo: Who Ate All the Pies.

The referee is Wirral-based Mike Dean, harbinger of Arsenal doom. Arsenal's record with Mike Dean as the referee now stands at one win from 13 across all competitions; that win was last January, in the FA Cup replay at Championship side Leeds United. The last time Arsenal beat a top flight side with Dean as the referee was in November of 2008, as the Gunners beat Chelsea 2-1 at the Bridge, with Robin van Persie's second half brace canceling out a first half own goal from Johan Djourou.

I've documented this stretch of matches pretty much every time Arsenal gets Mike Dean, so this is like beating a dead horse. But, here is the rundown, yet again: 0-0 draw at Spurs, 0-0 draw at Manchester United, 2-1 loss at Manchester United, 1-1 draw at Burnley, 2-0 loss at Chelsea, 0-0 draw with Manchester City, 2-0 loss at Chelsea, 1-0 loss to Newcastle, the one win over Leeds, the loss in the Carling Cup Final last year, the reverse fixture of this week at Spurs, the 1-1 draw with Fulham in November, and the 2-1 loss to United last month.

As for Tottenham, he has worked two matches this year and Spurs have won both (both were at White Hart Lane.) They beat Arsenal in the reverse fixture with Dean, then in December, beat Sunderland 1-0 with the balding man in the middle.

For a great, in-depth piece on Mike Dean, check out this piece from October, written before Arsenal dropped three more games with Dean in the middle.

Around the League

Sheffield Wednesday was the last non-top flight side to
win a domestic cup, winning the League Cup in 1991.
Photo: Down By 20.

The North London derby serves as the prelude into the Carling Cup Final, pitting Liverpool against Championship side Cardiff City at Wembley. The last time a team from outside of the top flight won a domestic cup in England was in 1991, when Sheffield Wednesday won the League Cup over Manchester United, 1-0. Liverpool's involvement in the final means the team they would have played in the league this weekend, Everton, will have the weekend off.

That means there are only eight other league fixtures this weekend instead of nine, and oddly, two others will be played on Sunday. That includes Manchester United's visit to Carrow Road to face Norwich, which kicks off at the same time as the North London derby, followed by Stoke City taking on Swansea at 10:00 a.m. Both of these matches were moved to Sunday due to United and Stoke's involvement in the Europa League.

Manchester City's Europa League second leg with Porto was played on Wednesday instead of Thursday for some reason, which allows City to play on Saturday this weekend. They'll play in the late game as they host Blackburn Rovers at Eastlands. There's no early game (that would have been the Liverpool derby,) so the other matches are the five played in Saturday's normal time slot. They include Chelsea hosting Bolton at the Bridge, Newcastle hosting Wolves at Not St. James' Park (you'll get arrested if you spray paint that it is,) QPR hosting Fulham in a West London derby, West Brom hosting Sunderland at the Hawthorns, and Wigan hosting Aston Villa at the DW.

Root Causes - A Time to Go Reprisal

Long-time readers know that I've been down this road before...in November of 2010, in fact. I don't like being the proverbial broken record, but given that this side has become one themselves, it's somewhat unavoidable.

It's not that my opinion on the matter is drastically different than it was fifteen months ago - it's just that I read this, followed by this...and then was passed along this by my roommate. Then, that was followed by a discussion on Facebook with some of the Blind Pig regulars, in which I started to outline the basic premise of what I'm going to talk about here.

I posit that the problem isn't down to the players...the personnel in place should easily accomplish fourth place at the bare minimum. No sir, for me, the root cause of our woes comes down to one man and one man only...Le Boss.

Again, (and it's tedious that any criticism has to come with this caveat attached like a remora), this doesn't mean that I don't appreciate everything he's done for the club, and it doesn't mean I think it's right to call him a see-you-next-Tuesday like the dimmer members of our fanbase do in these troubled times.

It just means that I don't think he's the right man for the job anymore.

There's several different factors occurring in parallel here, so for simplicity's sake I will tackle them one at a time:

A Remarkable Talent for Putting Out Fire with Petrol: Exhibit A here is the first link I posted. I honestly don't know at this point if we're being trolled or if this is his actual belief. It's a matter of perspective - were this The Modern Black Cat or The Modern Villain, there would be an exponentially deeper level of truth behind the idea of fourth place as "a trophy". I keep coming back to it, but a club of our resources doesn't have the same standards applied to it - especially in this day and age of financial segregation. Put more succinctly, you don't get to charge the highest ticket prices in Europe on one hand and on the other trumpet...well, not even fourth place, but the increasingly-remote possibility of finishing there.

I mean, Jesus bloody wept.

Here's the thing with that...this isn't the 1970s anymore. Back then, you could spend a few years in the footballing wilderness and still be within the power of the right manager or the right few players of a return to the happy end of the table. Case in point: In 1969-70, Arsenal finished in 12th place, 24 points behind the champions Everton (remember, it was 2 points for a win in those days). The very next season, the Gunners walked away with the First Division trophy.

For the most part, clubs competed on a even playing field financially. The European Cup was a nice side adventure, but it did not mean entry into a completely different footballing strata than your peers.

These days? It's calcified to the point where there are almost insurmountable walls between the VIP part of the club and the common rabble. Returning to the decade of my birth (just), there were 6 different league champions in the 1970s (if you count 69-70 and 79-80). If you expand that to the top three, that adds 7 more clubs for a total of 13. Compare that to the entire Premier League era, which goes back to 1992-93: 4 clubs have won the title, and a further 7 have finished in the top three...11 in all.

Let me reiterate that: two fewer clubs made it even into the top three in the last 19 seasons than there were in a random 11-year stretch back at or near the 70s. The bouncer working the door just got a whole lot meaner, folks.

With that in mind, to claim for what is not the first time that fourth place is a trophy...bloody hell, mate...it's not a trophy, it's a trap door. One step away from the precipice. Don't look down, Wile E. Coyote.

Beyond that, how many times do we have to hear about mental strength and handbrakes and our poor sods having to play a couple of games in a short period of time (you know, like every other major club in the world) before it starts to become self-parody? And those quotes about how it would be hard for any team in the world when Abou Diaby has played no games...how can you hear that without steam coming out of your ears?

Some of it is protecting the players...I get it. But if I thought for one second that any accountability was meted out to this lot behind closed doors, I'd feel infinitely better about it. I remain skeptical that anything of the sort is happening. So, what we're left with is an increasingly-infuriating reel of soundbites that is poking an already fractured and agitated fanbase with a sharp stick.

What's the value in it? Is it tone-deafness or something else? And not to pile on, but those other quotes popping up along the lines of "I'm getting advice from people who've never managed a game"...sure, there's an element of truth to it. But, how many other major managers bust that one out? How does it not come across as defensive to the point of vulnerability? Sometimes I wish he'd let Ricey do the talking.


The Likelihood That He's Been Passed By Tactically: The second link I included in the open was one of those rare pieces from the land of mainstream journalism that cut through the "ZOMG CRISIS CLUB" level to present a cogent and frankly frightening case that Arsenal don't have an identity, tactically speaking.

On some level, it seems that we emulate the Barcelona tiki-taka approach. I admit to not ing Barcelona much on the grounds of my undying hatred towards their football club. But, the little I have seen has shown a team that attacks with purpose and with a flurry of movement off the ball. What we have is a glacially-paced possession game that allows lesser sides to pack everyone including the tea lady behind the ball, with nine dudes standing around while the man with the ball futilely decides what to do with the two or three defenders pressing him.

Also, we don't exactly have Xavi pulling the strings for Leo Messi.

I've leveled a similar charge towards Chelsea in the past - go back and read the 3-5 match report if you disbelieve. Needless to say, it's not shocking to me that they're in a similar place to us right now. The league's on to them too, which is the only reason why I think we still might sneak into fourth place.

It used to be that we could get down into the trenches and win a tight game on a counter-attack or via a more direct route if the showpiece stuff didn't come off. Now? There's a Plan A, and if that doesn't work...well, did I mention we have a Plan A?

I mean, he's never been known as a manager who is on the cutting edge of tactics. The inimitable Red Geezer had that sussed out back in 1998:

And us? Well, we’ve come to realise that Wenger doesn’t really cut his cloth to fit. He plays his best team and lets everyone else worry about tactics. It’s taken us lot a season to realise what he does.

Here's my theory: While he started in 1984 with Nancy, Arsene really cut his teeth with Monaco from 1987-94. The midpoint of that run was 1990 - which was perhaps the apex of shitty, awful, boring and defensive football in the entire history of the game. The World Cup final that year is arguably the exact antithesis of Wenger's footballing philosophy (and also arguably the single worst high-profile game ever played).

Back then, the idea of committing to attack itself was a novel idea. Don't get me wrong - I'm not trying to detract from his sparkling career overall, or his persistence in dragging the sport away from the idea of post-match pies and pints. What I'm saying is that the lads from Zonal Marking wouldn't have had a whole lot to work with back in 1990 - it honestly was a much simpler game back then.

His stint in Japan lends itself further to this theory, I believe. While I don't claim to be an expert in Japanese football, I can tell you that most of the guys who have gone on to have European careers - Hidetoshi Nakata and Shinji Ono spring to mind - have been attackers or midfielders. I have a decent knowledge of the game, but I cannot recall a single Japanese defender that made an impact on the Continent.

These days, that won't fly. Even the mid-table sides that used to roll over for us are largely winning the tactical battles - everything is uphill now. That isn't even getting into the substitution patterns, the lack of flexibility (still playing a high line at Old Trafford even after they had already scored 5 or 6) or the other bizarre foibles such as playing central strikers out on the wing.


Spend Some Bloody Money: This one's been done to death. It's still no less true. Maybe one day the Politburo veil of secrecy will finally be pierced and we'll know for certain that we either had no money, or our last bunch of transfer windows were really one man's howling at the moon of the game's new economic reality.

Until then, I'm working off of the assumption that we can't afford a Sergio Aguero type, but we could bring in capable, professional reinforcements if we wanted to. Still, I think that's only a small part of it in the end...


A Chronic Failure to Make the Best Use of What We Have: Yes, really. Yes, I include people in this that you might be surprised to here.

The most obvious point here lies with the defense. For me, Wojceich Szczesny, Thomas Vermaelen, Laurent Koscielny, Per Mertesacker and Bacary Sagna are a class above most Premier League defenses in ability. But, we still give up ridiculous, schoolboy goals and still cannot defend simple set pieces. We conceded 43 goals last season, and 41 the one before that. It's only getting worse - we're at 35 already this term, which would put us on pace for 53 goals against.

This isn't headline news - Arsenal's defense is as much of a long-standing punchline as Newcastle's used to be. It would be one thing if we had First Division-level journeymen cloggers in there, but the fact of the matter is that we make mistakes that, say, Norwich never would. One can only imagine how many more points we'd have this season (and how many trophies we might have won in the last 6 years) if we just had some basic fundamental solidity among our backline.

I mean, no one is asking these questions. We know Sebastien Squillaci sucks now, but what turned a capable Champions League-experienced international defender into the shambling mess we have now? What turned The Verminator into the guy pratfalling all over the San Siro turf the other day? Why has Johan Djourou gone from a promising young center-half who occasionally had tremendous games to a guy I wouldn't trust to defend my seat at the bar while I went to take a piss?

It's not just the defense, either. Why is it that Andrei Arshavin can be a potent attacking force for Russia but a disinterested passenger for us? Why is Theo Walcott so maddeningly inconsistent, and why is a guy whose pace is his only weapon playing in a team who as mentioned operates at such a glacial pace? Why can Marouane Chamakh show flashes of predatory ability early on his Arsenal career, and end up a broken shell of a man?

Look, I'm not saying that there shouldn't be some accountability towards the players themselves. Hell, I'm the first one screaming for it here on a regular basis. But, who is the guy who pays them insane wages before they've accomplished the square root of fuck all? Who is the one who puts them straight back into the team after a bad game (don't tell me "because there is no one else" - that may be true, but if anything it's another damning indictment on the manager). Doesn't it seem telling when it's not just one or two players whose confidence and form is in free-fall, but the whole side barring RVP (who is cooling off himself, since we're on the subject). Isn't it incumbent on the manager to help bring a team out of the doldrums by means of the hairdryer or the arm around the shoulder when needed?

We'll never know what's going on behind closed doors...but the table doesn't lie, and it hasn't for six years.

Inevitably, anyone with an opinion like mine is going to be told the old chestnut that "no one else out there is better". Like fun, there isn't. The elephant in the room is that Jose Mourinho is likely a goner in Madrid after this season. You can call me anything you want, but the truth of the matter is that I'd cut off my right goddamn arm to have him manage the club next season if that's the case. He'd sort out this locker room in about six-tenths of a nanosecond, I'll tell you that much.

I honestly believe you could throw a rock at the Bundesliga and hit four managers who could do this job.

I honestly believe David Moyes would be brilliant with this club...especially if the financial constraints are as bad as rumored. The fact that he's kept that ragtag batch of misfits up around the decent end of the table despite a transfer budget that wouldn't get a meal at McDonald's is amazing to me.

Of course, no new manager (Mourinho included) would be a certainty. I'll tell you what is a certainty though - every season for the last six years, we have slowly circled the drain as we've lost faith, lost games, lost finals and lost players. They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Well? What are you expecting will be different? Will "no, really, next year we're totally going to do it" ever really be the case? It's been next year for six years, with no sign of stopping.

If we're going to be kicked out of the VIP section of the club, I don't want to go so damned meekly. I want us to smash a barstool over someone's head and insult the bouncer's mother on the way out. Why not hire Mourinho and see what he can do? Why not hire Moyes and see if he can work his magic at a slightly higher level (let's not fool ourselves, it's not that much higher these days).

It can't be worse than where we're at now...you know, at the dictionary definition of insanity.